Adamawa 2027: The Writing on the Wall for Aspiring Candidates

Adamawa 2027: The Writing on the Wall for Aspiring Candidates

By Tom Garba, Yola

In a candid and honest analysis, following careful assessment of the evolving political landscape in Adamawa State, this opinion piece asserts that the Gongola Peoples Forum (GPF) has solidified its position as a formidable socio-cultural force with profound implications for the 2027 governorship election.

Representing a broad coalition of indigenous ethnic nationalities within Adamawa, the GPF’s unified voice, strategic demands, and electoral mobilization potential position it as the potential kingmaker or breaker in what promises to be a fiercely contested race.

As political actors intensify early positioning, the message remains unequivocal: recognizing and aligning with the GPF’s agenda could prove the decisive factor in securing victory at the polls.

The GPF serves as an umbrella organization championing cultural unity, heritage preservation, inclusivity, and redress for perceived historical marginalization among indigenous groups in Adamawa.

The forum’s momentum has accelerated through high-profile events, notably the grand cultural fiesta held in Yola at Mahmud Ribadu Square in December 2025.

The GPF has also celebrated key milestones, such as the 2024 creation of seven new chiefdoms and emirates (Hoba, Madagali, Michika, Gombi, Dumne, Fufore, and Maiha), interpreting these as meaningful steps toward balanced representation and autonomy for indigenous communities.

The GPF’s leadership enhances its credibility and extensive reach. National Chairman Engr. Markus Natina Gundiri, a seasoned politician and former governorship aspirant, commands decades of experience and widespread recognition.

Gundiri has repeatedly affirmed that the forum’s ethnic nationalities will produce the next governor in 2027 “without spending a kobo,” underscoring reliance on grassroots mobilization rather than financial inducements.

While commending Governor Ahmadu Fintiri for supportive measures, he insists on sustained and meaningful commitments to the group’s priorities.

Other prominent figures lend further weight: Lt. Gen. Haladu Hananiya (rtd) as National Leader, whose military stature confers gravitas; and the Council of Elders, inaugurated in January 2025, comprising influential personalities such as Senator Ishaku Abbo, former Governor Umaru Jibrilla Bindow, Senator Binos D. Yaroe, Engr. Babachir Lawal, DIG Philemon Leha (retd), Hon. Justice Bemare Bansi (retd), General Lawrence Ngubane (retd), Prof. Istifanus Zabadi, Chief Joel Hammajoda Madaki, Martins Babale, and others.

This diverse assembly spanning political, military, judicial, and traditional domains ensures influence across party lines and generational divides.

Recent collaborations with entities like the Adamawa Unity Forum and Nigeria Indigenous Language Development Council further demonstrate the forum’s organizational strength, with retired General Paul Tarfa chairing major gatherings and praising efforts toward cultural cohesion.

Adamawa’s demographic configuration significantly amplifies the GPF’s leverage. The state ranks among Nigeria’s most ethnically diverse, with over 100 indigenous groups.

The GPF claims representation of over 90 of these primarily non-Fulani communities including Bachama/Bwatiye, Kilba, Margi/Marghi, Mumuye, Chamba, Gude, Nzanyi, Yungur, Ga’anda, Bata, Lunguda, and others.

These groups predominate in farming communities across southern, central, and northern zones, where their collective votes and population concentrations are evident and substantial.

Population projections place Adamawa at approximately 4.9 million as of recent estimates (building on the 2006 census figure of about 3.18 million and accounting for growth trends).

Voter registration reached around 2,196,566 for the 2023 elections according to INEC data, with likely increases since then.

The GPF’s base exerts strong influence in over half of the state’s 21 Local Government Areas (LGAs), particularly in rural and peripheral zones: southern strongholds such as Numan, Demsa, Lamurde, and Guyuk (Bachama-dominated); northern hill regions like Michika, Madagali, and Hong (home to Kilba, Margi, Huba); and others including Gombi, Jada, and parts of Fufore and Maiha.

The forum is actively mobilizing beyond partisan politics to reclaim and secure its identity, with leaders vowing unified action in 2027.

In the 2023 governorship election, incumbent PDP candidate Ahmadu Fintiri secured a decisive victory but faced narrower margins in diverse indigenous-dominated LGAs.

A cohesive GPF bloc vote could markedly alter future dynamics, particularly in areas where turnout and regional loyalties prove decisive.

Victory in Adamawa demands a statewide plurality of votes alongside at least 25% in two-thirds (14) of the 21 LGAs—a threshold susceptible to ethnic and regional coalitions.

No single demographic holds an absolute majority, yet a mobilized coalition can decisively tip the balance.

The GPF’s cross-party unity distinguishes it: leaders exhort members to prioritize alignment with core demands; name reversion, indigenous equity, and chiefdom sustainability over loyalty to PDP, APC, or other platforms.

This approach transcends conventional affiliations, potentially fragmenting votes or establishing a formidable kingmaker bloc.

Bloc voting strength is clear: strong turnout from 10+ core LGAs would readily secure the 25% threshold in required areas while enhancing statewide totals. Historical patterns indicate that indigenous votes have swayed outcomes in rural and southern LGAs.

Explicit conditions reinforce this influence: forum statements caution against withheld support or active opposition to non-aligned aspirants.

Slogans such as “Gongola or No Vote” and associated ultimatums reflect disciplined electoral strategy.

A central demand persists: the reversion of the state’s name from Adamawa adopted following the 1991 bifurcation of Gongola State to Gongola, viewed as a vital symbol of inclusive belonging for all ethnic groups.

This campaign, launched prominently in early 2025 under the leadership of Engr. Markus Gundiri, has been framed as indispensable for equity and a sense of shared identity.

Strategically, as 2027 approaches, contenders be they challengers or potential successors confront a stark imperative. Engaging the GPF through genuine dialogue, policy concessions, or alliances mitigates the risk of alienating a vast demographic segment; disregarding it invites defeats in pivotal LGAs. Gundiri’s pledge of cost-free mobilization for aligned candidates further elevates the stakes.

In this candid assessment, the GPF’s demonstrated unity, prominent leadership, demographic spread, and conditional endorsement render it the determinant force in Adamawa politics.

Aspiring candidates ignore this emerging reality at their peril. The writing is on the wall: recognize the Gongola Peoples Forum, engage its agenda meaningfully, and secure a viable path to victory or prepare for an arduous uphill battle in Adamawa 2027. The months ahead will reveal who wisely heeds this call.